The October Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report, the final release of jobs data before Tuesday’s election, brought grim news: the U.S. added just 12,000 jobs in October. The report appears the harbinger of a weakening economy, further clouding sentiment on the Biden-Harris legacy with just days before polls close Tuesday night.
But the modest gain may actually conceal even greater trouble: total private sector employment actually shows a net loss of 28,000 jobs. The BLS report was propped up by 40,000 new government jobs. Private payrolls haven’t seen a loss since 2020.
[Read: Did Gretchen Whitmer really add 27,000 jobs to Michigan’s economy this year?]
How long will these figures hold?
In a trend of revisions under the Biden-Harris administration, FBI crime data from the National Incident-Based Reporting System was quietly updated showing crime was much higher than previously reported, and jobs have been no different: BLS revised its August jobs report down by nearly a million in September, shedding more than 800,000 jobs from August data.
The October data brought a new revision: 81,000 further fewer jobs in August, and the September were cut by 31,000.
So, it’s not outside the realm of possibility the BLS figures on October jobs may sink come next month — and show total jobs negative across all sectors. BLS has revised seven of the past nine months’ jobs data downward.
Media have explained away the grim report, blaming weak numbers on Hurricane Helene, sure to have some bearing on job creation, and a Boeing machinists’ strike. But not all payroll providers showed an effect from the hurricane. And, it’s unclear how the Boeing strike plays into the new jobs gains data.
Meanwhile, the quits rate, showing workers leaving jobs, is plummeting to levels not seen since 2014. In other words, workers aren’t quitting jobs, which could reflect softening sentiments on the prospects of finding another job.
Immigration and the economy have steadfastly remained top issues in the 2024 cycle as the border has seen millions of illegal immigrants entering the country, and runaway inflation has seized the country. A downturn in employment could finally cripple the housing market as affordability hits all time lows.
The downward revision of August jobs figures may come to represent the economy’s turning point, but the October jobs data could be the sign of chickens coming to roost on the campaign trail.
Unemployment claims nosed upward modestly in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and more significantly in Michigan. Each of those states saw spikes in unemployment claims in October before cooling and now spiking again heading into November.
Jitters in unemployment claims coupled with the abysmal jobs report comes as a blow to Harris, who remains in a dead heat with former President Donald Trump in Michigan, per AtlasIntel.
New data in manufacturing shows the sector on the ropes, with the Purchasers’ Manufacturing Index dropping to new lows on the year. In other words, orders with suppliers are lower on softening sales, and jobs are getting cut.
BLS figures out this past week show the manufacturing sector down 46,000 jobs last month. The news could prove a headwind for Harris across Midwest swing states come Tuesday as voters weigh the Biden-Harris economy at the ballot box.
