The company that operates transmission lines for Ohio and a dozen other states said “extreme scenarios featuring record demand” could require it “to call on contracted demand response resources to reduce electricity use.”
PJM Interconnection LLC, a regional transmission organization serving Ohio, predicts summer energy use, or load, will peak at slightly more than 154,000 MW. PJM, part of the Eastern Interconnection grid operating an electric transmission system, said it “should have adequate reserves to maintain reliability,” adding: “This season also marks the first time in PJM’s annual assessment, however, that available generation capacity may fall short of required reserves in an extreme planning scenario that would result in an all-time PJM peak load of more than 166,000 MW.”
According to a PJM release, “Under such circumstances, PJM would call on contracted demand response programs to meet its required reserve needs,” the company added. “Demand response programs pay customers who have opted in to reduce their electricity use in times of system emergencies.”
A megawatt can power roughly 800 houses, and cloud computing, artificial intelligence, and other digital services are helping to drive increased demand for power in Ohio and elsewhere.
The PJM prediction follows an earlier finding in the Energy Competitiveness Report published by the Ohio Business Roundtable. It found that PJM could face an electricity shortfall by 2027.
The PJM summer energy use prediction comes as the National Weather Service predicts hotter-than-normal conditions for the summer, especially in the Atlantic seaboard states. PJM said it has around 179,200 MW of generation capacity this summer and about 7,900 MW of contracted demand response.
PJM set its record summer peak load in 2006 when it hit 165,563 MW. Last year, PJM’s summer peak was roughly 152,700 MW, while it was 147,000 MW in 2023.
“This outlook at a record peak heat scenario reflects our years-long and mounting concerns as we plan for enough resources to maintain grid reliability,” Aftab Khan, PJM executive vice president of operations, planning and security, said in a release. “All resources within PJM’s footprint should be prepared to respond when called upon.”
PJM said its operators use “sophisticated technology” to direct the power grid based on supply and demand changes. The teams prepare scenarios that could change depending on emergency conditions, equipment failure, and weather.
They adjust resource output based on demand changes to prevent overloading transmission lines and facilities. The team also monitors and reacts to “unusual conditions” to safeguard the electricity supply.
PJM said it has previously expressed worries “about the supply and demand imbalance driven by generator retirements and the slow build of new resources in the face of accelerating demand growth.” It included the concern in a 2023 paper.
The potential energy shortage has caught the attention of presumptive Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy, who promised to make the Buckeye State an energy-dominant state should he win next year’s election.
“This isn’t just a theoretical risk anymore: Ohio is at risk of rotating power outages & blackouts by 2027,” Ramaswamy said in a post to X. “That is totally unacceptable in a state so rich in natural gas & coal. We’ll turn this around & lead Ohio to be a state of energy dominance in America.”
